As Olympics approach, China still in flux, journalist says

China wants to use the 2008 Beijing Olympics to demonstrate its emergence as an important world power. But a leading journalist in China questions if it will be a confident nation in five years, rightfully proud of its achievements as it welcomes the summer games.

"Except as a result of war or earthquake or other such cataclysmic event, perhaps no city in the world has changed so much in such a short period of time," said James Miles, correspondent for The Economist and presenter of the 2003 Graham Hovey Lecture Sept. 11 at the Wallace House Gardens. "But China's dream of great powerdom will probably remain just a dream well beyond the games."

Miles returned to U-M to give the 18th Hovey lecture, titled "The Beijing Olympics and the New China." He was a Knight-Wallace Fellow at U-M in 1994-95 and published a book in 1996, "The Legacy of Tiananmen: China in Disarray," with U-M Press.

China's slogan for the 2008 games is "New Beijing, Great Olympics," Miles said. "New" is crucial to China's thinking, he said, as it continues a political, social and economic change begun in 1989 with the Tiananmen Square massacre.

He said for a while, organizers even considered making Tiananmen Square the venue for beach volleyball competition.

"At the Olympics, China wants to present itself as a modern, changed country," Miles said. "And while it will act more confidently on the world stage, in five years China will still be at the starting block in the journey for great powerdom. In 2008, China will pose no threat economically to the western world."

Miles said change in China is evident, as Beijing has become one of the most cosmopolitan cities in Asia. Since moving to Beijing 17 years ago as a correspondent for United Press International, Miles said he has seen the capital city become as vibrant and dynamic as any capital city in the region.

But, he said, China's political system is as fragile as the people running it. The Communist Party of China established the People's Republic of China in 1949 under the label of a new China, he said, and after more than 50 years, the ruling party wants to wipe the slate clean and start again.

Miles said many people thought the recent SARS scare would change the way China was governed. He disagreed, saying the leadership's position was to keep quiet, and the party only came clean after the World Health Organization presented overwhelming evidence of a situation that was much worse than officials originally declared.

Unemployment is the greatest threat to social stability in China, Miles said. If it maintains a current growth rate, China could be faced with double-digit unemployment by 2008. He said a new China needs to provide types of security such as pensions and health insurance.

"China will want to celebrate the Olympics with an economy that is booming," said Miles, noting that there will be an upswing in investments and loosening of credit. "But if China is to avoid a financial crisis, it needs to sort this mess out quickly. Otherwise, the Olympics could well be followed by an almighty hangover."

President Mary Sue Coleman and Earl Lewis, dean of the Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies, hosted a reception after the speech.

Hovey is the retired director of what then was known as the Michigan Journalism Fellows Program, now the Knight-Wallace Fellows at Michigan. The program invites 12 journalists from the United States and six from other countries each year to participate in their own course of study for an academic year at U-M.

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