Teen smoking rates and illicit drug use continue to drop

By Joe Serwach
News Service

Teen smoking has been in steady decline from the peak levels reached in the mid-1990s, according to the U-M Monitoring the Future study released Dec. 19.

The study found that smoking rates fell by one-third to more than one-half among secondary school students, depending on grade level. Young people see smoking as more dangerous, and are registering higher disapproval of smoking among peers, at a time when the reported availability of cigarettes to younger students has declined.

But the rate of decline in youth smoking has decelerated over the past several years. In 2005 the decline halted among eighth graders, who have been the bellwethers of smoking trends among teens.

“We are still seeing some residual declines in smoking in the upper grades, as the lower-smoking birth cohorts make their way up the age spectrum,” said Lloyd Johnston, the study's principal investigator. “But even in the upper grades a slowdown is occurring, and we believe the declines are likely to end very soon.”

The Monitoring the Future study surveys nationally representative samples of approximately 50,000 eighth-, 10th- and 12th-grade students each year in about 400 secondary schools.

The study is supported through a series of investigator-initiated, competitive research grants made to the University by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). The authors of the forthcoming report on the 2005 findings are Johnston, Patrick O'Malley, Jerald Bachman and John Schulenberg—all psychologists and research professors at the Institute for Social Research.

“In the 30 years that this study now spans, we have seen some wide fluctuations in the smoking habits of American young people,” Johnston said. “And we have been keenly aware that these changes will have long-lasting impacts on the eventual health and longevity of each of these successive classes of young people.”

Among high school seniors, rates of current smoking peaked in 1976, with nearly 40 percent of the graduating class saying that they had smoked one or more cigarettes during the prior 30 days. Smoking then declined among successive classes through the remainder of the 1970s to about 30 percent of the Class of 1980 saying they did so.

Then, for more than a decade the smoking rate among successive 12th-grade classes remained remarkably constant given that adult smoking rates declined during that historical period. But in the first half of the 1990s, teen smoking took off, increasing on the order of one-half by the mid-1990s among younger teens, and by about one-third among 12th graders.

Since those peaks were reached nine years ago, a number of things have happened, including a very visible discussion in the 1990s by White House officials, federal agencies and Congress on whether the tobacco industry was actively trying to hook kids.

It is likely that all of these factors contributed to the dramatic fall in teen smoking that has occurred since the mid-1990s, the investigators said. Thirty-day smoking rates have fallen from their recent peaks in the mid-1990s by 56 percent, 51 percent and 37 percent among eighth, 10th and 12th graders, respectively.

 “Although the recent decreases in smoking have more than offset the substantial rise in teen smoking during the early 1990s, the current rates are still far higher than parents and the public health community would like to see,” Johnston noted. “And considerable evidence is accumulating that the downturn in teen smoking may stall at about these still unacceptable levels."

According to investigators, a number of signs point to an end of the decline in teen smoking. In addition to the fact that the eighth graders' 30-day smoking rate held steady this year (after declining more slowly in the previous few years), they note that the declines in use in the upper grades also have decelerated considerably.

There also is evidence in the study that the proportion of secondary school students being exposed to anti-smoking ads is in decline and that fewer of today's students, compared with earlier classes, say such ads have a deterrent effect on them.

"Insofar as these anti-smoking ad campaigns have had their intended effects—and there is growing evidence that they have—the pullback that is now occurring in the funding of such campaigns at both the national and state levels is not a favorable development," Johnston said.

The proportion of older teens who use illicit drugs continued to decline in 2005, the fourth consecutive year of decline among the nation's 10th- and 12th-grade students, according to the latest national survey in the Monitoring the Future series released Dec. 19.

The long-term improvements that had been occurring among eighth graders since 1996, however, appear to have halted this year.

The use of marijuana and illicit drugs other than marijuana, taken as a group, showed very modest continuing declines this year among 10th- and 12th-grade students, the study shows.

“What is significant is that the use of these substances has declined substantially since the recent peak levels reached in the mid-1990s,” said Lloyd Johnston, the study's principal investigator. “Generally, the proportional declines since then have been greatest among the eighth graders and least among the 12th graders, despite the fact that eighth graders show no further improvement this year.”

Overall, the use of any illicit drug in the 12 months prior to the survey is down by more than a third among eighth graders since 1996, the recent peak year for that grade. That use is down by just under a quarter among 10th graders but by only about 10 percent among 12th graders. Tenth and 12th graders reached their recent peaks in 1997. Marijuana—by far the most widely used of the illicit drugs—is down by similar proportions.

“We believe that the greater proportional declines in previous years in the lower grades are now being echoed in the upper grades, as those younger adolescents age and enter the upper grades,” Johnston said.

In 2005, the proportions of youths ever having tried any illicit drug in their lifetimes are 21 percent, 38 percent, and 50 percent in grades eight, 10, and 12, respectively. In other words, exactly half of the students today have tried an illicit drug by the time they finish high school. The proportions indicating any use of an illicit drug during the 12 months immediately preceding the survey are 16 percent, 30 percent, and 38 percent in grades eight, 10, and 12.

The annual prevalence rates for using any illicit drug other than marijuana are 8 percent, 13 percent, and 20 percent in grades eight, 10, and 12, respectively. These rates are down some from the peak levels in the mid-1990s---by about four-tenths among 8th graders, and three-tenths among 10th graders, but by less than one-tenth among 12th graders.

Some drug use declines

Marijuana—by far the most widely used of the illicit drugs—continued a pattern of very modest decline in the upper grades since 2001. Since the recent peak year of 1996, there has been a one-third decline in the annual prevalence of marijuana use among eighth graders, from 18.3 percent to 12.2 percent in 2005, but none of that decrease occurred this year. Tenth and 12th graders showed more modest declines of one-quarter and one-eighth, mostly because their use held steady from 1997 to 2001 before beginning to decline again.

Among the other drugs showing modest declines this year are amphetamines, methamphetamine, steroids and alcohol. All of these drugs showed statistically significant declines this year in one or more grades. Three so-called club drugs—ketamine, Rohypnol and GHB—also showed an ongoing pattern of decline this year, but only GHB showed a statistically significant decline. Finally, tranquilizers and ecstasy showed evidence of continuing declines in just one or two grades, though they were not statistically significant.

Many classes of drugs showed little or no systematic change this year, though in most cases they have shown some decline in recent years. The use of LSD by adolescents had been in decline since recent peak levels were attained in all three grades in 1996. Since 2003, there has been little further change, with usage rates remaining at historically low levels.

Hallucinogens other than LSD, taken as a class, have shown a slight downward drift since the recent peak year of 2001. The annual prevalence rates in 2005 are fairly low, standing at 2 percent, 3.5 percent, and 5 percent in grades 8, 10, and 12. The primary drug used in this class is psilocybin, also known as magic mushrooms.

The use of ice or crystal methamphetamine is measured only in 12th grade. This particular form of methamphetamine is down by about one-quarter from its recent peak, but it has shown no further decline since 2003.

Illicit drugs, alcohol trends

The only drugs showing a pattern of increase this year are sedatives, OxyContin, and inhalants; even for these drugs, the increases are modest and confined in each case to one grade. The use of alcoholic beverages has generally been in decline among American teens for the last several years, and that decline continued in all three grades in 2005.

The 30-day prevalence of alcohol use among teens generally rose some in the early 1990s, along with illicit drug use, and then started to gradually decline in the late 1990s, again somewhat in parallel with illicit drug use. However, both the earlier rise and later declines were more gradual for alcohol than for illicit drug use.

In 2005 one-sixth (17 percent) of the eighth graders indicated drinking once or more in the prior 30 days, as did a third (33 percent) of the 10th graders, and nearly half (47 percent) of the 12th graders. This makes alcohol the most widely used of all the drugs encompassed in the study.