Scholarship & Creativity

Although oil prices continue to set record highs, America's economy will remain solid through the middle of next year, say U-M economists. After that, it will slow down a bit, even as oil prices fall back to less than $50 a barrel in the next two years, they say.

In their annual mid-year forecast update of the U.S. economy, issued Aug. 12, Saul Hymans, emeritus professor of economics, and colleagues Joan Crary and Janet Wolfe of the economics department, predict growth in national economic output—as measured by real Gross Domestic Product—at a 4 percent rate during the second half of this year, then scaling back to growth rates of 3.1 percent in 2006 and 2.8 percent in 2007.

Despite slower economic expansion in the next two years, job growth will remain healthy as the unemployment rate continues to edge down, their forecast shows. Non-farm payroll employment will increase by 2.2 million jobs in 2006 and 1.8 million jobs in 2007. The unemployment rate will improve from this year's 5.5 percent to 4.8 percent next year and 4.7 percent in 2007.

Solid job growth during the next two years will be accompanied by a drop in inflation in 2006 as oil prices retreat, Hymans and colleagues say.

With inflation expected to be contained, the economists say the Federal Reserve Board, which raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points recently, will make two more moves to push the rate to 4 percent by year's end, followed by a rate-hike hiatus. Eventually, they say, the funds rate will reach 5 percent during 2007.

As a result, the 30-year conventional mortgage rate will increase from an average of 6 percent this year to 6.9 percent next year and to 7.6 percent in 2007. The rate for three-month Treasury bills will jump from 3.2 percent in 2005 to 4 percent in 2006 and to 4.6 percent the year after, while the 10-year Treasury bond rate will climb from 4.5 percent this year to 5.5 percent next year and to 6.1 percent in 2007.

The forecast is based on the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy and compiled by the U-M Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.—Bernie DeGroat, News Service

Widowed elders have less stress living closer to children

Living near one's children enhances psychological well-being, but widowed elderly living with children may find that their social lives suffer, a U-M study shows.

Older adults reported significantly lower levels of psychological distress when their children lived within an hour's drive than if family members lived farther away, says Jung-Hwa Ha, a doctoral student in the School of Social Work and co-author of "The Effect of Parent-Child Geographic Proximity on Widowed Parents' Psychological Adjustment and Social Integration."

The study, co-written by Deborah Carr of Rutgers University, appears in the September issue of Research on Aging.

While geographic proximity is good for widowed parents, living in the same household with their children can be a detriment to their social integration, the research indicates. Parents who live with their children are less likely to be integrated into informal networks of friends, neighbors and relatives, Ha says.

The researchers used data from the "Changing Lives of Older Couples" study conducted by the Institute for Social Research. The study's findings include:

• Living with or near one's adult children is associated with lower levels of psychological distress among bereaved elders, yet this protective effect is apparent only after parents' perceptions of dependence on their children are taken into account. Parental well-being may be compromised if they feel overly dependent on their children;

• Living with an adult child significantly decreases the amount of interaction a bereaved older adult has with friends, neighbors and relatives. One factor could be that older adults living with their children have more household responsibilities, such as caring for grandchildren, and may not have much free time to interact with people outside the immediate family;

• Parent-child proximity did not affect despair and yearning, which involves the bereaved parent's attachment to the deceased spouse.—Jared Wadley, News Service

Many women choose aggressive cancer surgery despite breast-sparing option

When a woman is diagnosed with breast cancer her top priority is to get the cancer out and reduce the odds that it will ever return. But for some women just getting the cancer out doesn't feel like enough.

According to a study led by researchers at the Comprehensive Cancer Center (CCC), when women, not their surgeons, have control over the type of surgery they receive they are more likely to choose a more aggressive surgery that removes the entire breast, even though survival rates are the same for surgery that removes only the tumor.

With breast-conserving surgery, or lumpectomy, followed by radiation therapy, there's a higher risk of the cancer coming back than with mastectomy—surgery that removes the whole breast. But many of these recurrences are caught early and treated effectively, so overall survival rates are the same for either type of surgery.

"The current policy assumes that the high rate of mastectomy, the more invasive treatment, is a result of two things: providers not following guidelines that favor breast-conserving therapy and patients not being involved in the treatment decision," says lead study author Dr. Steven Katz, associate professor of general medicine at the Medical School and of health management and policy at the School of Public Health (SPH). "What we find is the opposite: Surgeons are strongly promoting lumpectomy, and most women say they were involved in the decision."

The researchers found that 27 percent of women who said they made the surgical decision received a mastectomy, compared to only 5.3 percent of women who said their surgeon made the decision, and 16.8 percent of women who said it was a shared decision.

Overall the researchers found women were satisfied with their choice, with only 11.7 percent of all women reporting low satisfaction with the type of surgery they received and 11.4 percent expressing regret over their decision.

"As long as women are not pressured to have one type of surgery over the other, either choice is a viable option," says study co-author Paula Lantz, associate professor of health management and policy at SPH and a member of the CCC.

In addition to Katz and Lantz, study authors for both papers were Nancy Janz, professor of health behavior and health education in SPH; and Angela Fagerlin, a research investigator in internal medicine; Barbara Salem, a research associate in internal medicine; and Indu Lakhani, an applications programmer/analyst in pediatrics, all from the Medical School.

Study results appeared in the August Journal of Clinical Oncology.—Nicole Fawcett, Comprehensive Cancer Center

Female politicians suffer from "face-ism"

Successful female politicians face a number of obstacles that don't burden their male peers. One of these, a U-M study shows, is "face-ism"—a tendency to emphasize women's bodies rather than their faces.

Researcher Sara Konrath presented results from the study Aug. 20 in Washington, D.C., at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association.

"Earlier studies have shown that people pictured with prominent faces are seen as more intelligent, ambitious and confident than people shown with less prominent faces. They're also seen as more aggressive, dominant and assertive," she says.

For the study, Konrath, a doctoral candidate in social psychology, examined headshot photos of all U.S. governors, senators and representatives for 2000-04. Her collaborators were Norbert Schwarz, a research professor at the Institute for Social Research and the Stephen M. Ross School of Business, and a professor in the Department of Psychology, and student Dave Foldes.

The researchers computed "face-ism" scores for the politicians by analyzing photos on the same Web site— http://www.congress.org. They obtained scores by measuring the size of the face from the top of the head, including the hair, to the lowest part of the chin, then dividing by the total size of the body image pictured. The result is a ratio expressing the proportion of the person's total image devoted to the face.

Overall, the researchers found, the 504 male politicians had higher face-ism scores than the 84 female politicians. The heads of male politicians occupied 78 percent of their images, on average, while the heads of female politicians occupied 75 percent of their images—a statistically significant difference, they say.

Whether these numbers translate into real differences in evaluations of the politicians' competence is an issue the researchers plan to investigate in the future.

Konrath and colleagues also found that women who were single and who had three university degrees had the same facial prominence scores as males with those characteristics.—Diane Swanbrow, News Service

Thinking the pain away?

Just thinking that a medicine will relieve pain is enough to prompt the brain to release its own natural painkillers and soothe painful sensations, a U-M study finds.

The study provides the first direct evidence that the brain's own pain-fighting chemicals, called endorphins, play a role in the phenomenon known as the placebo effect—and that this response corresponds with a reduction in feelings of pain.

The new study is the first to pinpoint a specific brain chemistry mechanism for a pain-related placebo effect. It may help explain why so many people say they get relief from therapies and remedies with no actual physical benefit. And, it may lead to better use of cognitive, or psychological, therapy for people with chronic pain.

The results were published in the Aug. 24 issue of the Journal of Neuroscience by a team from the Molecular and Behavioral Neurosciences Institute (MBNI). The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health.

"This deals another serious blow to the idea that the placebo effect is a purely psychological, not physical, phenomenon," says lead author Dr. Jon-Kar Zubieta, associate professor of psychiatry and radiology at the Medical School and associate research scientist at MBNI. "The mind-body connection is quite clear."The findings are based on sophisticated brain scans from 14 young healthy men who agreed to allow researchers to inject their jaw muscles with a concentrated salt water solution to cause pain. The injection was made while they were having their brains scanned by a positron emission tomography scanner. During one scan, they were told they would receive a medicine—in fact, a placebo—that might relieve pain.

All participants showed an increase in the activation of their mu opioid endorphin system after they were told that the medicine was coming and the placebo was given.

In addition to Zubieta, the research team included MBNI members Joshua Bueller, Lisa Jackson, David Scott and Janyun Xu; radiology Professor Robert Koeppe; Thomas Nichols, an assistant professor of biostatistics in SPH; and Christian Stohler, formerly of the School of Dentistry and now at the University of Maryland School of Dentistry.—Kara Gavin, UMHS Public Relations

Teen height predicts adult earnings

While research has shown that tall adults earn more money than shorter workers, what matters most is how tall a person was as a teenager, says a U-M economist.

"The fact that shorter people are penalized in the labor market does not imply that they are penalized for being short," says Dan Silverman, assistant professor of economics. "Much of the wage disadvantage experienced by shorter people can be explained by a characteristic other than adult height, namely height in adolescence."

Using data from the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and Britain's National Child Development Survey, Silverman and colleagues Nicola Persico and Andrew Postlewaite of the University of Pennsylvania found that each additional inch of height at age 16 is associated with a 2.7 percent increase in wages among white American men and a 2.6 percent increase among white men in Britain—regardless of occupation.

When controlling for youth height, the estimated effect of adult height on wages is virtually zero, the researchers say. Moreover, the teen height premium does not diminish much when variables such as family resources, good health, native intelligence and self-esteem are taken into account.

The study, published in the Journal of Political Economy, included an analysis of men's heights at ages 7, 11, 16 and 33. But only height at age 16 influenced future wages, the results show.

According to Silverman and colleagues, participation in extracurricular and other social activities as a teenager may play a significant role in the teen height premium. Playing high school sports is associated with nearly a 12 percent increase in adult wages and participation in every additional club other than athletics correlates to about a 5 percent increase in wages, the researchers say.

Those who were relatively short when young are less likely to participate in social activities like athletics, school clubs and dating that help teens hone their social skills—skills that eventually will help them secure good jobs as adults, they say.—Bernie DeGroat, News Service

Social support curbs depression among African Americans

When relatives offer social support during difficult times, African Americans report they feel less depressed. But a new U-M study indicates that familial support does not lessen the effects of financial strain on depressive symptoms.

The study, appearing in the current issue of the Journal of Marriage and Family, explores the impact of adverse events on symptoms of depression and how relatives respond.

Individuals experiencing financial strain or a traumatic event (e.g., witnessing an accident or being physically threatened or assaulted) were likely to feel depressed and say that their relatives criticized them, made them feel tense and got on their nerves, says Linda Chatters, professor of public health and an associate professor of social work.

The study shows that the financial strain of not having enough money to pay bills had a strong, negative effect on the amount of social support offered by relatives. Specifically, respondents with money woes indicated that their relatives did not understand or appreciate them and could not be relied on for help.

"This particularly potent influence of financial strain on social support may be a reflection of overtaxed kinship-based support networks that are unable to meet the financial needs of individuals," Chatters says.

Chatters and co-authors Robert Taylor of the School of Social Work and Karen Lincoln of the University of Washington used data from the National Co-morbidity Study to examine the relationships among stress, social support, negative interaction and mental health in a sample of 591 African-American men and women ages 18-54.

Among other findings:

• Women reported fewer traumatic events but more negative interactions with relatives, and more depressive symptoms than men;

• Older African Americans experienced more financial strain and traumatic events than their younger counterparts;

• Individuals with higher levels of education reported less financial strain, but more traumatic events compared to their less-educated counterparts;

• Married individuals reported less financial strain, and fewer traumatic events, negative interactions with relatives and depressive symptoms than those who were not married.—Jared Wadley, News Service

Families need help coping with loved one's cancer, too

Caregivers of friends and family members diagnosed with cancer need care too, a U-M researcher says.

"When someone we love has a familiar disease like a cold, we generally know what to do. It's very hard for families to know what to do in the face of a complex, life-threatening disease. Families often feel powerless," says Laurel Northouse, a professor of nursing and co-director of the Socio-Behavioral Program at the CCC.

Often, family members find themselves drafted for informal health care, emotional support and daily responsibilities the patient can't handle. They also have their own anxiety and stress levels about the disease to manage.

Northouse collaborated with investigators from Wayne State University and other cancer centers to develop the FOCUS Program. The family intervention program initially was offered to women with recurrent breast cancer and a family caregiver. During the program, nurses met with families in their homes and followed up with phone calls.

In the sessions, the nurses looked for ways to manage the illness and improve quality of life both for the patient and the caregiver. Sometimes that meant helping identify resources to help with in-home medical care or facilitating difficult conversations about the patient's wishes for care.

The researchers have adapted the program to the needs of men with prostate cancer and their partners. Currently 263 men and their partners are participating in the study, which is funded by the National Cancer Institute.

Northouse is a member of the new Michigan Center for Health Intervention, a collaboration between the schools of Nursing and Public Health, recently funded by the National Institutes of Health.

Her article, "Helping Families of Patients with Cancer," appears in the current issue of Oncology Nursing Forum. It is based on the keynote address she gave at the Eighth National Conference on Cancer Nursing Research earlier this year.—Colleen Newvine, News Service